Steel prices continue to register their lowest values since May 2021. Spot prices going into 2023 are almost 20% less than those going into 2022. This slide is primarily due to what people in finance call “mean reversion”: as time goes on, prices return to their average. Steel prices had been unsustainably high for almost two years, and this is a return to form rather than a sign of weakness. We expect them to continue to decline and recommend waiting until the spring before making major purchases.

Zinc prices reached their highest levels ever recorded in the days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While neither country produces a substantial amount of zinc (which is largely used in the construction industry to galvanize metals), Russia in particular is a significant supplier of oil and gas.

Softwood lumber prices are rising again in North America starting this March, with a peak within the next two months. Supply is still disrupted, causing prices to reach levels last seen in spring 2021. Production in North America increased in 2021 and an incremental increase is expected later this year. However, short-term supply disruptions, coupled with higher-than-average demand, have been driving prices up. 

An old joke among economists says that the four most dangerous words in the English language are, “This time is different.” But the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is the first of its kind, where troop movements are broadcast on social media and sanctions are deployed on such a scale.

Aluminum moved from surplus to deficit in 2021 and is currently fundamentally tight in 2022. Market prices reflect this shift, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) price breaching $3,175/metric ton last October, its highest level since 2008. Regional premiums have also shown strength. We believe that the current market view of aluminum supply and demand in 2022 is still tense, but there is a possibility that demand growth could become flat later.

From countries to companies to individuals, tackling climate change is at the top of the agenda, even if it felt a bit less important during the COVID-19 pandemic. For many, the main strategy for achieving success in the fight against climate change is to nose-dive straight into the journey to net zero by 2050.

We believe that rising input costs will drive prices up both for cement and concrete in early 2022. The rising energy prices and seasonal factors could explain the price increase in the first half of 2022, before price escalation slows as energy costs recede.

Impacted in 2021 by climate change, loss of biodiversity, racial inequality, poor working conditions, and finally by COVID-19, industries and companies of all shapes and sizes are taking a closer look at the way they conduct the future of their business.

While COP26 may be a familiar term to some readers, it might not be recognizable to all. Luckily, here at Cumming our Sustainability & Energy Solutions team has many years of experience in all matters related to COP26.